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LSAT Preptest 150, Section 1, Question 4

Passage 1: Greenhouse Effect

Explanation

A. While the passage does discuss the importance of correspondence between the model's calculations and temperature observations, it does not specify that the model's success is most crucially judged on the calculated average global temperatures in the last few years alone.


B. The passage does not suggest that the simplicity of the explanatory framework is a critical factor in judging the model's success. The complexity or simplicity of the model is not the focus.


C. Although the passage mentions the model has been revised, it does not indicate that the extent of revision is the most crucial factor in judging the model's success.


D. There is no direct mention in the passage that the most crucial judgment of the model's success is a close fit between the warming mechanisms postulated by the theory and those generally acknowledged to raise atmospheric temperatures.


E. (Correct Response) The passage, particularly in the final sentences of the second and third paragraphs, emphasizes the importance of the models accounting for all known factors, such as sulfates and solar cycles, and still aligning with the observed rise in global temperatures over the long term. The author argues that even with these factors considered, the greenhouse effect remains the best explanation for the observed data, suggesting that a long-term match between the model's estimates and actual temperatures is key to validating the model.

This option is supported by the overall argument in the passage that, despite various factors like sulfates and solar activity, the rise in atmospheric temperatures is best explained by greenhouse gas-induced warming, which is a long-term trend consistent with the models.

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